The results of the container year 2009 and our short-term forecast
The researches we have done in the course of the current year and at the closing of the last one we have made a number of guesses. Mostly they concerned the general problems of insufficient load of the container handling facilities in ports, on the rail and the inland terminals.
Basically all the suggestions we gave proved true. The Russian Far East has dived the deepest. At that Vladivostok, mostly serving the local market is doing relatively well. The Neva mouth started with the downturn, but is reversing before the end of the year which allows us to expect the negative growth result is going to be minimal. The south is down and continuing to move along the bottom with the result of -28%. Ukrainian terminals are fully out. Yet no need to be Nostradamus to have forecasted that.
Kaliningrad is very unwell, which we already guessed last summer. At this point nobody seems to know how to deal with it there. The Baltic states are losing their share on the Russian container market, so does Finland strive to hold the negative growth stable. On the Russian Railways the volumes of the most profitable transiberian traffic has fallen. But the altogether volume is recovering thanks to container export, which volumes have not downturned at all, and inland traffic to have suffered insignificantly. The extended operations at the Russian-Chinese border may help to compensate for the decreased import volumes. Yetthefinancialsituationisfarfrombeingunshadowed As expected not one normal container terminal appeared in the inland. The load for the port rear terminals have increased slightly, yet mostly due to administrative pressure.
The road carriers have been dumping in panic throughout the 2009 and are ending it caught up in the own fishnet: the risk of bankruptcy for all the market operators besides the largest ones is at its maximum.
What price wars are awaiting the market? How the “businessmen” are going to proceed? How much the profit (rates) need to be cut in order to retain the customers and the volumes? We have our own opinion on all that.
The problem of the load for the container facilities and the prospects of the facilities under development and construction. Nothing personal – but sure, not all are going to survive. And the projects still on paper will have to wait another 5-7 years.
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INTRODUCTION 3 PROSPECTS FOR THE RF PORTS CARGO-WISE (NORTH-WEST) 4 CONTAINER MARKET PROSPECTS IN MORE DETAILS 6 LOOK AT THE NORTH-WEST IN THE FIRST TURN. 6 IMPORT IS NO LONGER THE DRIVE 8 DEMAND FOR IMPORTED GOODS AND COMMODITIES 8 DESCRIPTION OF THE RUSSIAN DOMESTIC CONSUMER DEMAND 8 RAIL CONTAINER TRANSPORTATION 11 SEA TERMINAL BUSINESS 23 AZOV-BLACK SEA BASIN WITH THE ELEMENTS OF THE CASPIAN SEA 23 NOVOROSSIYSK 23 UKRAINE 31 BALTICS 35 KALININGRAD 44 BALTIC STATES AND FINLAND 45 RUSSIAN FAR EAST 48 FINAL REVIEW OF THE CONTAINER MARKET 50 LIST OF DIAGRAMS 53 LIST OF TABLES 54
List of Diagrams Diagram 1. 5 Diagram 2. 6 Diagram 3 7 Diagram 4. Novorossiysk Monthly Turnover, export and import, 2008-2009. 22 Diagram 5. Novoroslesexport Monthly Turnover, export and import, 2008-2009. 23 Diagram 6. NMTP Monthly Turnover, export and import. 2008-2009. 24 Diagram 7. NUTEP Monthly Turnover, export and import. 2008-2009. 25 Diagram 8. The turnover of loaded containers in the port of Novorossiysk by liner operators, 2008 26 Diagram 9. The turnover of containers in the port of Novorossiysk by liner operators, 2009 27 Diagram 10. The turnover of containers in the port of Novorossiysk by liner operators, 2009 27 Diagram 11. Container Handling Volume at Ukraine Terminal of the port of Odessa, 2004-2009 31 Diagram 12. Monthly Odessa Container Turnover 2008-2009 31 Diagram 13 32 Diagram 14. Exponential projection of FCT and PLP turnover to the end of 2009 35 Diagram 15. FCT monthly turnover 2001-2009 36 Diagram 16. Lines’ shares in the FCT turnover, 2008 37 Diagram 17. Lines’ shares in the FCT turnover, 2009 37 Diagram 18. PLP monthly turnover 2001-09 38 Diagram 19. Lines’ shares in the PLP turnover, 2008 38 Diagram 20. Lines’ shares in the PLP turnover, 2009 39 Diagram 21. Basic Terminals turnovers in the crisis 1998-99 40 Diagram 22. FCT, VSC and PLP Turnover in February 2008 — February 2009 and forecast up to August 2009 41 Diagram 23. FCT and PLP Turnover in February 2008 – February 2009, forecast up to August 2009 and the factual turnover up to the year end 42 Diagram 24. VSC Monthly turnover, 2005-2009 47
List of Tables TABLE RAIL CONTAINER TRANSPORTATION 11 TABLE 11 TABLE 12 TABLE 12 TABLE PAYER FOR PLATFORMS ACCORDING TO INVOICED BY RZD, TEU 13 TABLE COMMODITIES IN RAILWAY CONTAINERS 15 TABLE STATION OF DEPARTURE 15 TABLE CONTAINER OWNER BY TICKER 20 TABLE CHANGE OF DISTRIBUTION OF VOLUMES BETWEEN LINEAR OPERATORS IN TSEMESS BAY 27 TABLE RUSSIAN AZOV-BLACK SEA MARKET 31 TABLE BLACK SEA 34 TABLE 35 TABLE KALININGRAD VOLUMES 44 TABLE FINNISH TERMINALS TURNOVER & RUSSIAN TRANSIT 45 TABLE BALTIC OPERATORS 46 TABLE 46 TABLE 47 TABLE RUSSIAN FAR EAST 48 TABLE TOTAL RUSSIAN SEA TERMINALS’ CONTAINER TURNOVER 50 TABLE 51
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13.11.09 в 20:02 раздел Исследования