Container Market Survey 2012


The world is brewing change. Brewing yet still missing figures and clear understanding. As a result of this study several conclusions are likely to be drawn regarding the Russian and neighboring states’ markets. And we shall give a number of assumptions as to the local economics and trade forecasts. However, the main conclusion can be drawn today. More precisely, it is not even a conclusions but a warning. We are on the verge of changing trade regimes and a major trade patterns’ reshape. It must be remembered that these changes occur every 20 years. In fact, the whole global production pattern, trade balances between countries are changed often bringing to zero all the infrastructure investments.

Before the last two shifts the main force driving these changes (some were longer lasting though) were wars. Now they are no longer needed. Just remember that 40 years ago oil trade flows were completely changed, since the fields of Samotlor and the Persian Gulf were discovered and developed, supertankers — built, and that brought dramatic change to the world.

20 years ago, after decades of accumulating resources, China announced itself as a world factory, and in the late 80’s and 90’s it became a major recipient of international investment in low-cost production, and then the most attractive destination of investment for infrastructure investors. Today this process is coming to an end. The first signs of this — the reorientation of China’s domestic market, stiff opposition to WTO members on every occasion, and the latter the most notable example — the refusal to follow the wishes of the Brazilian ore corporation Vale to upgrade the bulk terminal for receiving a new class of vessels. Such things have never happened before. All questions which used to have been brought by investors of such size was quickly and clearly perceived put on five-year plans and enforced strictly. What will happen next? You shall know our opinion in the end.



Alexey Bezborodov

Moscow 2012

+7-495-9409061  +7-812-6451061

Table of contents

Introduction 4 Stevedoring Market 5 General conditions and exclusions 5 Novorossiysk and the neighborhood 12 Neva Bay 16 First Container Terminal 22 The inland container traffic 31 Railway 31 Exceptions to the RZD statistics 33 Rear 36 Summing Up 40 Stevedores Earnings 41

14.05.12 в 22:29 раздел Исследования

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